Tuesday, March 3, 2009

The man Dubbed Dr.Doom since 2005 been warning theworld

Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Economist Nouriel Roubini, chairman of New York-based research firm RGE Monitor, earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" by warning as early as 2005 that America's speculative housing boom could trigger an economic crisis. At the time, he was dismissed by many as a perpetual pessimist. Today, he's a sought-after analyst and a popular guest on financial news programs and websites — and he is as gloomy as ever. Over breakfast in Hong Kong this week, the New York University professor talked with TIME's Michael Schuman about the perils that lie ahead if governments do not do more to confront the myriad problems facing global financial markets and economies.

Where is the global economy heading from here?

My concern right now is that this U-shaped recession we are in could turn into something much uglier, meaning a Japanese-style L-shaped recession: near stagnation or stag-deflation. We're in the worst global synchronized recession in the last 60 years. Unless we take the right policy actions we'll end up in a near-depression. I did not want to use that term six months ago. At that time I said the chances of a near-depression were only 10%. But today those chances are 33% or so. (Read "25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis.")

How can this be avoided?

You have to have a set of concerted, coherent policies done not just by the U.S., but Europe, Japan, China and everyone else. The credit crunch is just massive. One thing that's needed is much more aggressive monetary easing. The second dimension is that you need much more fiscal stimulus — in the countries that can afford it — that is front-loaded. The U.S. [stimulus package] is $800 billion but only $200 billion is front-loaded. Of that $200 billion [in stimulus] this year, half of it is tax cuts. That's going to be a waste of money because people are not going to spend it.

What's the best-case scenario?

If you do everything right, you avoid an "L," and that's really good news. But you still have a situation in which global growth this year is negative. GDP growth in advanced economies is going to be negative through the fourth quarter of this year, and next year growth will be anemic, probably 1% or lower. Job creation is going to be negative. Even in the best scenario, there will be job losses through the end of next year. In the best of circumstances, we have a two- to three-year recession in advanced economies.

Is there a part of the world you are especially worried about right now?

I'm worried about every part of the world. People thought the rest of the world would decouple from the U.S. That was nonsense. Emerging Europe is on the verge of a fully fledged sovereign debt, banking and currency crisis. I think China is in a near-recession right now. Many emerging markets, even those that are in better shape, are in severe trouble. I don't think there is any economy in the world right now that is safe.

Is a breakup of the European monetary union possible?

I don't see that as being likely but the probability of that eventually happening is rising. Right now we are facing a situation in which many countries now have banking systems that are too big to fail and also too big to be saved. Now if Ireland or Greece go bust, then there is already a commitment from the Germans and French to, one way or another, bail them out — because they know that otherwise the monetary union is going to collapse. But if you have to rescue on top of them Austria and Italy, Portugal and Spain and Belgium and the Netherlands, then that is not going to be possible. I am still of the view that we can avoid a collapse of the monetary union, but this is really the very first true test of its stability.

Many people are pinning their hopes on the Chinese government to stimulate demand. Is that justified?

I have to give credit to the Chinese. Their fiscal stimulus will contain the degree of economic contraction. But China is radically dependent on U.S. growth. Forcing state-owned enterprises and banks to spend more when you have overcapacity, or to lend more when there are already large [amounts of bad debt], is going to postpone a problem, maybe by a few months. But it will lead to a harder fall down the line. A hard landing is unavoidable given what has happened to the rest of the world.

Any good news out there?

Honestly, as of now, I don't see any. Policy is moving in the right direction. My concern is this is too little, too late.


10 commandments (8) 10 kingdoms (1) 1000 years (1) 1260 day prophecy (3) 1260 days (1) 3 angels message (4) 7th day Sabbath (18) 911 (7) 911 in prophecy (14) a (1) Al Quieda (1) All shabab (1) america in prophecy/prophecy/america (17) antichrist (3) Apostacy (2) Apostasy (1) austerity (1) Baal (1) Bible perversions (4) Bin Laden (1) BocoHaram (1) Catholic church (19) Christ Object Lessons (2) Christmas (2) conversion (1) country living (2) creation (2) Daniel 11:40-45 (8) death (1) demonic worship (2) destruction (4) diet and spirituality (2) disaster (6) economic crisis (13) economy (9) Ecumenism (5) Ellen G White (13) end times (64) endtime. (8) errors (1) evil in the last days (8) Extrabibiblical proof (2) faith (2) False church (6) final crisis (2) financial crisis (26) food (1) food crisis (1) Free mason (1) french Revolotion (1) french Revolution (1) global currency (1) God (1) God's church (3) God's Word (10) Gods Holy day (The Sabbath) (7) great controversy. (4) Health (5) health. (1) heaven (1) His comming (3) His people (3) History (2) Hollywood (1) Hopes are diminishing (2) Image of the Beast test (2) islam (14) Israel (3) Jesus Christ (8) Jeus (1) judgements a coming. (3) judgments (5) judgments are coming. (1) king of North (1) KJV (1) Last Day deception (6) Last Day decption (9) Last Days on Earth (10) laws (2) lies (1) Luke 21 (3) mark of the beast (6) Mark13 (2) Marriage (1) martin luther (1) Matthew 24 (1) media (2) millinium (1) music (4) New age.New world order (4) New world order (13) Noah. (1) Obama (3) Obedience (1) out of the cities.Japan earthquake. (2) Pagan worship (10) papacy (12) perfection in Christ (4) persecution (1) points to ponder (17) politics (2) Pope (4) Population control (2) probation close (12) probation closing (2) Prohecy (3) Prophecy (82) prophet of God (5) rapture/false teachings (1) redemption (1) reformation (3) Revelation (10) Revelation 13 (2) richard bennette (2) Rome (6) sanctifiaction (1) sanctification (1) satanic agencies (2) SDA (1) se (1) seven trumpets (3) signs of Christ soon coming (1) signs of Christ soon comming (2) sin (3) sin. (1) Spiritual Growth (8) Spiritualism (3) sun worship (1) Sunday law (21) sunday worship (9) Sundaylaw (5) swine flue (1) swineflu (3) swineflue (9) terrorism (1) The Acult (1) The Bible (46) The Catholic church (13) The coming of Christ. (3) the controversy (5) the days of Sodom (1) the end (3) The end times (21) the last Crisis (4) the media (1) The Occult (1) the papacy (17) The Telvision (1) the thruth. (3) the time of the end (3) the truth (22) the UN (4) time of the end (5) time of trouble (14) Time of trouble. (9) triniadad and tobago (2) triple action (4) true church (1) truth (5) Ukrain outbreak (1) Unions (2) Urban dangers (3) US Government (5) vaccination (5) vatican (4) vegetarianism (1) war (5) WHO (1) wise and foolish virgins. (2) woes (9) Worship (6)

Bible ref Tags